This section outlines the incidence (new cases) of cancer identified in the CCG compared to England overall. Data are pooled for three year periods due to the small number of cases for some cancer sites, and to account for the natural variation across individual years.

Between 2012 and 2014, there were 10,502 newly diagnosed malignant tumours (an average of 3,501 new cases annually) among patients in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG. The directly age-standardised rate (per year) for the CCG using pooled data for 2012-14 was 627 new cases per year per 100,000 European Standard Population (ESP 2013). This is similar to the rate for England overall.

The figure below shows the directly age-standardised incidence rate (per year, per 100,000 European Standard Population) of malignant neoplasms diagnosed between 2012 and 2014 in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England. The figure shows that the standardised incidence rate for females in the CCG (542 new cases per year, per 100,000), is similar to females nationally (547 new cases per year, per 100,000). However, the age-standardised rate for males in the CCG (711 new cases per year, per 100,000), is higher than males nationally (683 new cases per year, per 100,000).

Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

The table below shows the number of tumours diagnosed between 2012 and 2014 in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England. The age standardised rate per 100,000 European Standard Population (2013) and confidence intervals are given to enable comparison across ages and between areas.

Incidence of cancer diagnosed in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG; pooled data 2012-2014

AreaAge GroupNumber of TumoursAge Standardised Rate (per 100,000 ESP 2013)95 % Confidence interval
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG0-24882418-29
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG25-49729172159-185
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG50-59 1,138 598563-633
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG60-69 2,647 1,352 1,300-1,404
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG70-79 3,070 2,126 2,050-2,202
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG80+ 2,830 2,698 2,595-2,801
England0-24 9,842 2020-20
England25-49 87,447 158157-159
England50-59 117,555 581578-584
England60-69 225,157 1,287 1,281-1,292
England70-79 242,127 2,122 2,114-2,131
England80+ 200,729 2,782 2,769-2,794
Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

The chart below shows the age standardised rate of new cases per year per 100,000 European Standard Population (2013) for NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England in 2012-14 by age group.

Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

Trends in cancer incidence

The chart below shows the long term trends in incidence of all malignant tumours, excluding non melanoma skin cancer, for the population of NHS Coastal West Sussex between 2001-03 and 2012-14 compared to England. The colour of the dots represents whether the age-standardised rate in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG was significantly lower, similar to, or higher than the incidence nationally.

Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

The trend chart shows that the incidence rate of diagnosed cancer has been mostly lower than the rate for England although it has increased in recent years. In the last two time periods (2011-13 and 2012-14) the rate was similar to the rate in England. If this trend continues, the rate of incidence per year per 100,000 population may be significantly higher in the CCG compared to England.

Indeed, among males, the 2012-14 age-standardised rate of cancer incidence in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG (711 new cases per year per 100,000 European Standard Population (2013); 95% CI: 692-730 new cases) was significantly higher than males in England (683 new cases per year per 100,000 European Standard Population (2013); 95% CI: 681-685 new cases). The table below shows the number of tumours diagnosed and age-standardised rates for males and females in the CCG for each time period.

Incidence from all malignant cancer, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer; among males and females in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England; pooled data (three years); 2001-03 to 2012-14

AreaSexNumber of tumours diagnosedAge Standardised Rate (per 100,000 ESP 2013)95% Confidence IntervalYear
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,344499483-5142001-2003
EnglandFemale345,746485483-4862001-2003
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,234486471-5012002-2004
EnglandFemale348,652487485-4882002-2004
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,192481466-4962003-2005
EnglandFemale356,115495493-4962003-2005
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,163477462-4922004-2006
EnglandFemale362,871501500-5032004-2006
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,219479464-4942005-2007
EnglandFemale370,354507506-5092005-2007
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,280482467-4972006-2008
EnglandFemale378,797514512-5152006-2008
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,356489475-5052007-2009
EnglandFemale387,448520518-5212007-2009
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,480498483-5142008-2010
EnglandFemale396,770526524-5282008-2010
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,628514499-5302009-2011
EnglandFemale405,262531530-5332009-2011
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,811530515-5462010-2012
EnglandFemale413,774537535-5382010-2012
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale4,914539524-5552011-2013
EnglandFemale423,912543542-5452011-2013
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale5,009542527-5582012-2014
EnglandFemale432,077547545-5482012-2014
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,128637618-6572001-2003
EnglandMale347,337640638-6422001-2003
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,148632613-6522002-2004
EnglandMale352,294641639-6432002-2004
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,093617598-6362003-2005
EnglandMale358,700643641-6462003-2005
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,152617598-6362004-2006
EnglandMale369,231653650-6552004-2006
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,048592574-6102005-2007
EnglandMale375,885653650-6552005-2007
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,186601583-6192006-2008
EnglandMale385,472656654-6582006-2008
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,326610592-6292007-2009
EnglandMale397,545663661-6652007-2009
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,400610592-6292008-2010
EnglandMale409,738670668-6722008-2010
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,484612594-6302009-2011
EnglandMale421,003675673-6772009-2011
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale4,751637619-6562010-2012
EnglandMale429,994677675-6792010-2012
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale5,176682664-7012011-2013
EnglandMale442,621685683-6872011-2013
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale5,493711692-7302012-2014
EnglandMale450,780683681-6852012-2014

Cancer incidence projections

The table below contains the estimated incidence projections for malignant cancer in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG up to 2030 using age-specific incidence rates from Cancer research UK, population projections at CCG level from the Office for National Statistics and incidence data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network.

Age specific incidence rates (for 5 year age bands) for the UK were applied to the 2014 based NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG population projections* for years 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2030. This gives an estimated number of diagnoses for each year and a percentage increase from the 2014 figures. The percentage increase is applied to the actual estimated incidence figures (using the average of the 2012 to 2014 incidence). The projections assume that age-specific cancer incidence rates will remain at the rate as at 2012-14. It is expected, however, that incidence rates will rise between now and 2030 due to changes in treatment, screening behaviours and diagnostic testing as well as recording of cancer statistics and so these projections should be treated with caution.

Incidence of malignant cancers in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG; projections 2014-2030

YearEstimated incidence (number of cases) based on national age-specific rates and 2014 subnational (CCG) projectionsEstimates adjusted for observed incidence (2012-14 average)Percentage increase from 2014 estimatesProjected number of additional cases (per year) based on observed incidence
20143,5723,501--
20163,6973,6233.5% 122
20214,0723,99014% 490
20264,5054,41526.1% 915
20304,8584,76136%1,260

* The projections used in this analyses are subnational population projections (SNPP) produced by the Office for National Statistics in 2016, and are based on the 2014 mid-year population estimates. As a result, these estimates are based on the old CCG boundary where four lower-layer super output areas (LSOAs) were formerly assigned to NHS Guildford and Waverley CCG. This equates to a deficit of around 7,000 residents. As such, the projections for NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG (particularly for later years) are likely to underestimate the projected population size of the CCG area when the new boundary is taken into account.

The analysis indicates that in 2016, there were an estimated 122 additional cases per year compared to the 2012-14 average, and by 2030 there will be an additional 1,260 cases per year compared to the average number of new cases for 2012-14.