Data presented on cancer related mortality are taken from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Mortality Extract provided to the National Cancer Registration Service (National Cancer Intelligence Network). The ONS rules around coding death certificates are used to determine which tumour is the cause of death in these cases. Rates are standardised according to an approximate 2013 European Standard Population, in order to allow for comparisons between different localities (which may have different age structures) or over time (where the age structure might change).

Between 2012 and 2014, there were 4,830 deaths (an average of 1,610 deaths annually) among patients in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG attributed to malignant neoplasms (excluding non melanoma skin cancer). The directly age-standardised rate (per year) for the CCG using pooled data for 2012-14 was 273 deaths per year per 100,000 European Standard Population (ESP 2013). This is lower than the rate for England overall.

The figure below shows the directly age-standardised mortality rate (per year, per 100,000 European Standard Population) attributed to malignant neoplasms in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England. The figure shows that the standardised incidence rate for females in the CCG (225 deaths per year, per 100,000), is similar to females nationally (232 deaths per year, per 100,000). In addition, the age-standardised rate for males in the CCG (320 annual deaths per 100,000), is similar to males nationally (332 deaths per year, per 100,000).

Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

The table below shows the number of deaths attributed to malignant cancer between 2012 and 2014 in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England. The age standardised rate per 100,000 European Standard Population (2013) and confidence intervals are given to enable comparison across ages and between areas.

Mortality from cancer; patients in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG; pooled data 2012-2014

AreaAge GroupNumber of deathsAge Standardised Rate (per 100,000 ESP 2013)95 % Confidence Interval
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG0-241231-5
England0-241,30933-3
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG25-491393327-39
England25-4915,9652928-29
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG50-59339179159-198
England50-5933,657167165-168
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG60-69933477445-507
England60-6981,152464461-467
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG70-791,362939888-989
England70-79116,3031,0171,012-1,023
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG80+2,0451,9451,858-2,033
England80+150,3122,0922,081-2,103
Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

The chart below shows the age standardised rate of deaths per year per 100,000 European Standard Population (2013) for NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England in 2012-14 by age group.

Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

Trends in cancer mortality

The chart below shows the long term trends in mortality attributed to malignant tumours, excluding non melanoma skin cancer, for the population of NHS Coastal West Sussex between 2001-03 and 2012-14 compared to England. The colour of the dots represents whether the age-standardised rate in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG was significantly lower, similar to, or higher than the incidence nationally.

Source: National Cancer Intelligence Network

The chart shows that age-standardised mortality is consistently lower than the rate in England over all time periods available. However, it also shows that in recent years, the gap between the CCG and England is closing. For males, in the latest period (2012-14) the mortality rate in the CCG (320 deaths per 100,000 ESP 2013 (95% CI: 307-333 deaths) was similar to England (332 deaths per 100,000 ESP 2013 (95% CI: 330-334 deaths). Among females, the age-standardised mortality rate in the CCG has been similar to England for the last two periods of data (2011-13 and 2012-14). The age-standardised mortality rate by sex and year (pooled three year data) for NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England are given in the table below.

Mortality from all malignant cancer, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer; among males and females in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG and England; pooled data (three years); 2001-03 to 2012-14

AreaSexNumber of deathsAge Standardised Rate (per 100,000 ESP 2013)95% Confidence IntervalYear
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,267237227-2472001-2003
EnglandFemale183,246254253-2552001-2003
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,225232222-2422002-2004
EnglandFemale182,250251250-2522002-2004
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,261237227-2472003-2005
EnglandFemale181,098248247-2492003-2005
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,306241231-2522004-2006
EnglandFemale180,450246245-2472004-2006
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,361246236-2572005-2007
EnglandFemale181,495245244-2462005-2007
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,283235225-2452006-2008
EnglandFemale182,538244243-2452006-2008
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,210225215-2352007-2009
EnglandFemale182,915242240-2432007-2009
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,147216206-2252008-2010
EnglandFemale183,051239238-2402008-2010
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,177218209-2282009-2011
EnglandFemale183,638237236-2382009-2011
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,248225215-2352010-2012
EnglandFemale185,593236235-2372010-2012
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,297228219-2382011-2013
EnglandFemale186,676235234-2362011-2013
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGFemale2,308225216-2352012-2014
EnglandFemale187,404232231-2332012-2014
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,236343329-3572001-2003
EnglandMale198,258380379-3822001-2003
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,291347333-3612002-2004
EnglandMale198,215375374-3772002-2004
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,288342328-3572003-2005
EnglandMale197,221369367-3712003-2005
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,291338324-3522004-2006
EnglandMale197,356364362-3652004-2006
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,258327314-3412005-2007
EnglandMale197,955358357-3602005-2007
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,300327314-3412006-2008
EnglandMale199,499354353-3562006-2008
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,379333320-3472007-2009
EnglandMale200,883350348-3512007-2009
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,384327314-3412008-2010
EnglandMale202,560346344-3472008-2010
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,394323310-3362009-2011
EnglandMale204,129342340-3432009-2011
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,384314302-3272010-2012
EnglandMale206,658339338-3412010-2012
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,476320308-3332011-2013
EnglandMale208,880336334-3372011-2013
NHS Coastal West Sussex CCGMale2,522320307-3332012-2014
EnglandMale211,294332331-3342012-2014

Cancer mortality projections

The table below contains the estimated mortality projections for malignant cancer in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG up to 2030 using age-specific mortality rates from Cancer research UK, population projections at CCG level from the Office for National Statistics and mortality data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network.

Age specific mortality rates (for 5 year age bands) for the UK were applied to the 2014 based NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG population projections* for years 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2030. This gives an estimated number of deaths for each year and a percentage increase from the 2014 figures. The percentage increase is applied to the actual mortality figures (using the average of the 2012 to 2014 number of deaths). The projections assume that age-specific cancer mortality rates will remain at the rate as at 2012-14. It is expected, however, that incidence rates will rise between now and 2030 due to changes in treatment, screening behaviours and diagnostic testing as well as recording of cancer statistics, which may have an impact on the mortality experienced and so these projections should be treated with caution.

Mortality from malignant cancers in NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG; projections 2014-2030

YearEstimated number of deaths based on national age-specific rates and 2014 subnational (CCG) projectionsEstimates adjusted for observed mortality (2012-14 average)Percentage increase from 2014 estimatesProjected number of additional deaths (per year) based on observed mortality
20141,7661,610--
20161,8341,6723.8%62
20212,0541,87316.3%263
20262,3302,12432%514
20302,5772,34945.9%739

* The projections used in this analyses are subnational population projections (SNPP) produced by the Office for National Statistics in 2016, and are based on the 2014 mid-year population estimates. As a result, these estimates are based on the old CCG boundary where four lower-layer super output areas (LSOAs) were formerly assigned to NHS Guildford and Waverley CCG. This equates to a deficit of around 7,000 residents. As such, the projections for NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG (particularly for later years) are likely to underestimate the projected population size of the CCG area when the new boundary is taken into account.

The analysis indicates that in 2016, there were an estimated 62 additional deaths per year compared to the 2012-14 average, and by 2030 there will be an additional 739 deaths per year attributed to cancer compared to the average number of new cases for 2012-14.