Population Estimates and Projections

Population Estimates

Population information is available in different formats depending on the definition used. The registered population is defined as the number of people registered with a GP regardless of where they live and the resident population is defined as the number of people residing in a particular geographical area (e.g. a district).

The GP registered population for Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG in July 2016 is 236,600. Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG has fewer people aged 0-4 years and aged 15-34, and more people aged 35+ compared with the resident population of England. Comparison between the registered population and resident population in Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG (as shown in the table below) shows that there are higher numbers of people in the registered population for older age groups than the resident population.

Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG Population Pyramid
Sources: HSCIC (July-2016 GP registered population); ONS (MYE 2014 resident population)
Age Group GP Registered Population (July 2016) Resident Population (MYE 2014)
0-4 13,000 (5.5%) 13,300 (5.8%)
5-14 28,200 (11.9%) 27,900 (12.2%)
15-24 25,000 (10.6%) 23,900 (10.5%)
25-44 58,000 (24.5%) 55,600 (24.4%)
45-64 65,900 (27.9%) 63,400 (27.8%)
65-74 24,900 (10.5%) 23,200 (10.2%)
75-84 14,200 (6.0%) 14,100 (6.2%)
85+ 7,300 (3.1%) 6,600 (2.9%)
Total 236,600 228,000
GP Registered (July 2016) and Resident (MYE 2014) Population of Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 100. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Sources: HSCIC - GP Registered Population (July 2016), ONS - 2014 Mid Year Population Estimates

The table below shows the ONS mid-2014 resident population estimates at local authority level.

Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG has above average percentage of young people compared to the whole of West Sussex and England. It also has above average percentages of people aged 65 and over, and 75 and over when compared to England, although this is lower than the West Sussex county.

Area Total usual resident population 0-19 years 65+ years 75+ years  
Horsham1 83,650 20,350 (24.3%) 15,410 (18.4%) 7,260 (8.7%)  
Mid Sussex 144,380 34,780 (24.1%) 28,500 (19.7%) 13,410 (9.3%)  
Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG 228,030 55,130 (24.2%) 43,910 (19.3%) 20,680 (9.1%)
WEST SUSSEX 828,400 186,330 (22.5%) 183,970 (22.2%) 89,220 (10.8%)  
ENGLAND 54,316,620 12,907,330 (23.8%) 9,537,710 (17.6%) 4,374,840 (8.1%)  
NHS Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG Population Estimates Mid-2014. Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Population Projections

Projections of future population changes are based primarily on trends observed in levels of births, deaths and migrations in local authorities over the 5 years leading to 2014, and these are used to predict population change until 2039.

Current population projections for Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG are estimating an overall population increase of 7.9% over the next ten years and a 14.6% increase over the next two decades. Higher percentage increases are expected in older age groups, specifically persons aged 65-84 years (+23.0% by 2026, and +43.4% by 2036) and aged 85 years or above (+33.8% by 2026, and +122.5% by 2036). The population of those aged 85 or above is expected to more than double by 2036 in Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG.

Note: The projections included in this report show projected change to 2036. These are subnational population projections (SNPP) that were produced by the ONS in 2016, and are based on the 2014 mid-year population estimates.

Age Group 2016 (projection from 2014 MYE) 2026 Projection % Change from 2016 projection to 2026 2036 Projection % Change from 2016 projection to 2036
0-14 41,800 44,300 6.0% 44,800 7.2%
15-64 143,700 148,100 3.1% 149,000 3.7%
65-84 38,700 47,600 23.0% 55,500 43.4%
85+ 7,100 9,500 33.8% 15,800 122.5%
Overall 231,300 249,500 7.9% 265,100 14.6%
Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG Projections (2014 based). Source: ONS.
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate (2014); ONS Sub-National Population Projections (2014) Note. The figure represents the change from the 2016 population projection to the 2026 and 2036 population projection
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate (2014); ONS Sub-National Population Projections (2014). Note: the figure represents the change from the 2016 population projection to the 2026 and 2036 population projection
  1. Horsham local authority spans both Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG and Coastal West Sussex CCG. As such only the resident population for the area of Horsham local authority that falls within Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG is included in the table. The overall population of Horsham local authority is greater than this figure. 

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