This report forecasts future co-morbidity prevalence and dependency of older people from 2022 to 2035 by applying findings from a UK study (the Population Ageing and Care Simulation study, Kingston, A. Comas-Herrera and C. Jagger, “Forecasting the care needs of the older population in England over the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study,” The Lancet Public Health, 2018. [Accessed 12 February 2024]) to the local population.

The pdf version includes charts and tables which are not included in the Microsoft Word version which has been adapted to be as accessible as possible.

Some caution is needed when applying findings from a study undertaken elsewhere in the UK to the local population as there will be differences in health status and local context; the projections should be considered as indicative of general trends, rather than precise predictions.

Key findings:

  • In 2035 most residents between the ages of 65-85 are expected to remain independent with 28% projected to have dependency needs.
  • Growth in the number of people with dependency could be greatest among women and the oldest age groups. Four out of five residents aged 85 and above could have at least some dependency needs. As an increasingly ageing local authority, a larger population in these groups will increase total numbers in each category of dependency even if the proportion of those with dependency remains stable.
  • The number of people with low dependency needs could increase by 16,700 by 2035, an increase of 31% on 2022.
  • The number with medium or high dependency (substantial) needs could increase by 3,700, up 14% from 2022.
  • By 2035 there could be an increase of 5,700 people living with dementia and at least two other long-term health conditions, an increase of 71% on 2022. It will be less common than now for dementia to be the only condition that residents have. This will increase the complexity of care required. There could be an increase of 2,200 residents with substantial dependency and 3+ long-term health conditions, excluding dementia.